Kyle Pitts’ fantasy outlook is one of the most polarizing topics in fantasy football. While his talent is undeniable, the Falcons’ offensive struggles and inconsistent quarterback play have hindered his production
As we approach Week 5 and the Falcons’ Thursday night matchup against the Buccaneers, fantasy managers face a tough decision: stick with Pitts and hope for a breakout, or cut ties and move on to more reliable options.
Ultimately, the decision comes down to your tolerance for risk and your belief in Pitts’ long-term potential. For those willing to roll the dice, Pitts could still be a league-winner.
For others, it might be time to explore other options. Whatever you decide, the Kyle Pitts saga is far from over, and his fantasy story is one that will continue to evolve.
If there’s a more reliable tight end option available on the waiver wire, dropping Pitts could be a reasonable move.
But in most leagues, the tight end position is so volatile that you may not find a significant upgrade.
If you’re in a position where you can afford to hold onto Pitts for a few more weeks, that could be the best approach.
His potential hasn’t completely vanished, and a change in the Falcons’ offensive approach could reignite his production. Trading him is also a viable option, particularly if you can package him for a player who fills a bigger need.
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Kyle Pitts: The Fantasy Conundrum
Kyle Pitts, the dynamic tight end for the Atlanta Falcons, has been a hot topic in fantasy football since he entered the NFL.1
Once touted as a potential game-changer, his usage and performance have left many fantasy managers scratching their heads. While the Falcons’ head coach, Raheem Morris, has repeatedly praised Pitts’ abilities, fans and fantasy owners have yet to see consistent production from him in Arthur Smith’s offense.
As the Falcons approach Week 5 with a Thursday Night Football matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Pitts’ fantasy outlook remains uncertain.
A Glimpse of Potential
Kyle Pitts was selected 4th overall in the 2021 NFL Draft, making him the highest-drafted tight end in NFL history.
His rookie season showed flashes of his immense potential, as he finished with over 1,000 receiving yards – a rare feat for a rookie tight end.
Fantasy managers were excited, thinking they had struck gold with a tight end who could rival the production of elite wide receivers.
However, despite his physical tools and early promise, Pitts’ role in the offense under Arthur Smith has been inconsistent at best. Whether due to poor quarterback play or questionable play-calling, Pitts has not lived up to the lofty expectations set by his draft position.
The Struggles of the Arthur Smith Offense
One of the key issues affecting Kyle Pitts’ fantasy value is his role within Arthur Smith’s offensive system. Smith, known for his run-heavy schemes during his time with the Tennessee Titans, has struggled to fully utilize Pitts’ unique skill set.
While Pitts is more than capable of creating mismatches against linebackers and safeties, his target share has been surprisingly low.
Through the first few weeks of the 2023 season, Pitts’ fantasy production has been a rollercoaster. In some games, he’s barely seen the ball, while in others, he’s been a focal point.
The inconsistency has led to frustration among fantasy managers who expected more from such a high-caliber player.
Kyle Pitts: Quarterback Play
The Desmond Ridder Factor
Another major factor impacting Kyle Pitts’ fantasy outlook is the Falcons’ quarterback situation.2
Desmond Ridder, the Falcons’ starting quarterback in 2023, has shown promise but is still developing as a passer.
His accuracy and decision-making have been inconsistent, which has directly affected Pitts’ ability to produce in fantasy football.
Ridder often struggles to find Pitts in key situations, whether due to pressure or simply missing reads. This has led to fewer targets for Pitts, and when he does get the ball, it’s often in less-than-ideal situations.
As Ridder grows and improves, there is hope that Pitts’ numbers will rise, but for now, fantasy managers must temper their expectations.
Just cause it’s delayed doesn’t mean it’s denied.
Habakkuk 2:3
“For the vision is yet for an appointed time; But at the end it will speak, and it will not lie. Though it tarries, wait for it; Because it will surely come, It will not tarry.”— Kyle Pitts👑 (@kylepitts__) September 17, 2024
Week 5 Matchup: Falcons vs. Buccaneers
As we head into Week 5, the Falcons face a short turnaround with a Thursday Night Football matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The Buccaneers have historically had a stout defense, and this season is no different. They rank among the top teams in defending tight ends, limiting production from opposing teams’ star players.
However, Tampa Bay’s aggressive pass rush could create opportunities for Pitts in the middle of the field.
If the Buccaneers’ linebackers and safeties are focused on stopping the run and pressuring Ridder, Pitts may find himself in advantageous situations against single coverage. The key will be whether Ridder can deliver accurate passes under pressure.
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Kyle Pitts: Fantasy Outlook
Hold or Fold?
So, what should you do with Kyle Pitts on your fantasy roster as we approach Week 5?
Hold: The Potential for a Breakout
If you’re a patient fantasy manager, holding onto Kyle Pitts might be your best option. His talent is undeniable, and the Falcons are likely to find ways to involve him more as the season progresses.
In addition, if Desmond Ridder can develop better chemistry with Pitts, there’s a good chance we could see him return to the form that made him a fantasy darling in his rookie year.
Moreover, with the Falcons still figuring out their offensive identity, Pitts could be a key component in their passing game, especially as defenses start to focus more on stopping the run.
Fold: The Case for Moving On
On the other hand, if you’re tired of waiting for Pitts to live up to his potential, it may be time to move on.
Tight end is one of the most volatile positions in fantasy football, and there are other options on the waiver wire or in trades that could provide more consistent production. Players like Sam LaPorta or Dalton Kincaid may offer a safer floor on a weekly basis.
If you’re in a league where trading is common, you might consider shopping Pitts to another manager who believes in his long-term potential. His name still carries weight, and you might be able to acquire a more reliable asset in return.
As the Falcons take on the Buccaneers, there are a few key things to watch for if you’re a Kyle Pitts fantasy owner:
- Target Share: Does Pitts see more targets in this game? The Falcons need to get him involved early and often if they want to exploit the Buccaneers’ defense.
- Red Zone Usage: One of the biggest disappointments for Pitts’ fantasy value has been his lack of red-zone usage. Watch to see if the Falcons look his way when they get close to the end zone.
- Quarterback Play: Can Desmond Ridder deliver accurate throws under pressure? If Ridder struggles, it will be tough for Pitts to produce.
- Matchup Exploits: Look for opportunities where Pitts may be lined up against smaller defensive backs or slower linebackers. These are the situations where he can shine.
The Role of the Falcons’ Running Game
The Falcons’ offensive identity in 2023 has been heavily focused on the running game, with Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier handling the bulk of the workload.
This run-first approach has limited the passing volume, which in turn affects Pitts’ target share. However, as the season progresses, the Falcons may need to open up the passing game to keep defenses honest.
If the Falcons can establish a more balanced attack, Pitts’ role in the offense could increase, especially if defenses start keying in on Robinson. Pitts has the ability to stretch the field and create mismatches, which could lead to more big plays if given the opportunity.
The Long-Term View: Will Pitts Bounce Back?
For fantasy managers in dynasty leagues or those with a long-term perspective, Kyle Pitts still holds significant value.
His raw talent, combined with the potential for improvement in the Falcons’ offensive system, makes him a valuable asset in the long run. While 2023 may not be the breakout year many hoped for, Pitts is still young, and his best years could be ahead of him.
If you’re in a keeper league or looking toward the future, holding onto Pitts could pay dividends, especially if the Falcons make improvements at quarterback or adjust their offensive scheme to better suit his skills.
Kyle Pitts: Performance So Far
Kyle Pitts’ 2024 season hasn’t gone according to plan. After a stellar rookie campaign in 2021, where he racked up over 1,000 receiving yards, his fantasy value has taken a significant hit.3
Through four weeks of the 2024 season, Pitts has totaled only 8 catches for 105 yards on 15 targets. For a player that was drafted as a top-tier tight end in most leagues, this level of production is far below expectations.
Pitts’ targets have also been inconsistent. In Week 4 against the New Orleans Saints, he didn’t log a single catch, leaving many fantasy managers questioning whether he even has a role in the offense. This has led to serious frustrations, and rightfully so, given his draft capital.
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The Falcons’ Offensive Strategy: What Happened to Pitts?
- One of the main reasons Pitts has failed to produce this season is the Falcons’ offensive strategy.
- Atlanta has become a run-heavy team, led by their star running back Bijan Robinson and complemented by Tyler Allgeier.
- Quarterback Desmond Ridder has been a game manager at best, and the Falcons’ passing game has struggled to find any rhythm.
- Coach Morris’ recent comments shed some light on the situation when he said, “It was just about going out there and winning the game.
- Stats are for losers, man. I don’t get involved in that stuff.”
- This blunt statement illustrates the Falcons’ priorities: winning games, regardless of individual player stats.
- For fantasy managers who depend on consistent production, this approach is alarming.
- Pitts isn’t getting the volume of targets necessary to be a reliable tight end in fantasy football.
- And without those targets, it’s hard to justify keeping him on your roster, especially if there are more productive options available on the waiver wire.
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